After a cold spell last week, the atmosphere quickly returns to normal in the coming days, with rather mild and unsettled weather over the larger part of the North Sea. Atlantic lows are predominant with several frontal troughs occasionally sweeping across the area, alternated by mobile ridges of high pressure which cause short breaks in the overall very active weather patterns of this week.
Wind and waves
As a result of the described synoptic constellation, a moderate to fresh westerly airflow (4-5 Bft) unfolds over the North Sea on Tuesday as a mobile ridge passes. Ahead, and in its wake, winds tend to be stronger, especially from the evening well into Wednesday as the next Atlantic low (storm Jocelyn) makes her way into the Norwegian Sea and S Scandinavia. On the southern and western flank gale to strong gale force winds (8-9Bft) veering from southwest to northwest are expected. Significant wave height associated with this wind field will range from 2.0-3.0m just east of the UK (partly sheltered) to 5.0-7.0m further east. Strongest winds (and highest waves) will most likely be located over the northeastern half of the North Sea in the wake of the low near a secondary trough (see Figure 2).
Later on Wednesday winds gradually decrease from the W as a mobile ridge enters the area, leading to relatively calm conditions over the North Sea well into Thursday with a moderate breeze backing from northwest to southwest (see Figure 3).
Later on Thursday and early on Friday a new frontal trough increases the pressure gradient over the North Sea. The resulting wind/wave peak is most pronounced just behind the trough over the northern half of the North Sea. There, wind speed reaches near gale to gale force (7-8 Bft) coming from the W. Further S winds tend to be a bit weaker. Associated Hs peaks at 3.0-5.0m, with highest values over the north(east)ern half of the North Sea.
During the weekend the pattern doesn’t change that much with highest waves in the N, most likely between 4.0-6.0m, and lowered Hs in the S where high pressure possibly gains influence in the course of the weekend.