A high-pressure system will move over Scandinavia towards the east on Tuesday. As a result, winds will be calm across the entire North Sea. However, due to strong north-westerly winds on Monday, a significant amount of swell from the northwest will still be present. Hs will gradually decrease throughout the day. Wednesday will therefore be a relatively calm day. The south-westerly wind will gradually pick up as the next low-pressure system approaches. Except for the northern part of the North Sea, Hs will remain below 2 meters everywhere.
A low-pressure system will intensify over the Atlantic Ocean later on Wednesday and move in a northeasterly direction. The system will pass southeast of Iceland on Thursday. Its associated front will move eastward across the UK. In the trough, a secondary low-pressure system is expected to develop, which will travel over the central North Sea towards southern Scandinavia later on Thursday and into the night leading to Friday. The exact position of this low remains uncertain, but near the system's core, winds of up to 30 knots and Hs reaching 3-4 meters are to be expected. Figure 1 shows the most likely track of the system over the middle part of the North Sea. The highest risk of severe weather is inside the orange-coloured and red-coloured bands..
Figure 1: The highest risk of severe weather is inside the orange-coloured and red-coloured bands.
A weak ridge of high pressure will move eastward across the North Sea on Saturday. At the same time, a low-pressure system will develop over Ireland. This low will deepen as it tracks across southern parts of the UK and the far southern North Sea on Saturday, reaching central Europe by Sunday. There is still significant uncertainty regarding the degree of intensification and the exact track of this system, but there is potential for severe weather over the far southern North Sea during the weekend. Sustained wind speeds of up to 30-40 knots are possible in the southern North Sea, accompanied by an Hs of 4 meters.
All in all, it promises to be a week of variable weather over the North Sea. At the beginning and middle of the week, the most unsettled conditions will be concentrated over the central and northern parts of the North Sea, leaving some workable windows in the far south. Towards the weekend, the most severe
weather is likely to shift to the southern North Sea. This may create the possibility of a workable window over the northern part of the North Sea instead.
