After a calm week dominated by high pressure and spring-like weather, next week initially promises to be favourable conditions for offshore operations, due to a ridge over the area. While conditions in the North Sea will become slightly more variable, wind and significant wave heights are still expected to be suitable for offshore work. However, from Friday onwards, forecast uncertainty increases, and more unsettled conditions are possible by the end of the week.
Currently, the North Sea is positioned at the crossroads of a ridge of high pressure originating from the Atlantic, and a trough associated with low pressure north of Scandinavia. The high pressure system will shift towards the UK tomorrow, with the ridge dominating the North Sea, leading to the calmest conditions of the week. With wind speeds remaining below 20 knots across the entire North Sea, and between 10 and 15 knots for the vast majority of the region, the wind will be a fresh breeze at most. For the significant wave height (Hs), values below 2 metres are encountered for the entire area and below 1.5 metres for the southern half of the North Sea. Under these calm conditions, it is not unthinkable that fog or mist will occur locally.
Thanks to the ridge of high pressure, workable conditions are expected for the coming days. Significant wave height will remain around 1.0 meter or lower in the central and southern North Sea until Friday, with a possible increase to 1.0–2.0 meters in Forties and Viking on Thursday.
Optimistic and pessimistic models
Optimistic models foresee a continuation of the situation on Thursday, with again slightly increased waves and winds, leading to a wave and wind peak on Friday. Wave heights are expected to range from 1.5 metres with winds between 10 and 20 knots in the southern North Sea, to 2 metres with wind speeds above 20 knots in the northern part of the region (Fig. 1).
However, more pessimistic models predict that peaks will mostly occur on Friday and Saturday, as well as early next week. In these scenarios, maximum wind speeds could exceed 40 knots, with significant wave heights locally reaching more than 6 metres in the central North Sea (Fig. 2). For the southernmost North Sea, Saturday is expected to be the most unstable day, with winds exceeding 30 knots and waves above 3 metres.
Fig. 2: Pessimistic models predict peaks on Friday, Saturday, and early next week, with wind speeds possibly exceeding 40 knots and significant wave heights surpassing 6 metres in the central North Sea.
Conclusion
Given the uncertainty in current model projections, it is highly recommended to stay updated on the latest weather developments, especially for the latter half of the week, by consulting the most recent weather reports.
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