North Sea Weather week 50: calm conditions prevail across the entire North Sea, providing a welcome break from recent storms. After the challenging end to week 49, marked by the so-called 'twin storm' over the North Sea — where the last of the two storms was severe enough to be named Storm Darragh — calmer weather has now settled over the region. The turbulent conditions have finally subsided, bringing much-needed relief to the North Sea area.
A high-pressure system will remain over the United Kingdom through Thursday, while another high is expected to develop over southern Norway by Thursday morning. As the day progresses, the high over the UK will begin to move southeast, and the high over southern Norway will shift south. By late Thursday, these two systems will merge and move towards eastern Europe. Over the weekend, this combined high-pressure system will continue eastward, eventually crossing the Black Sea.
At the same time, a low-pressure system will approach Iceland from the southwest early on Thursday. It will then continue northwest, nearing the Norwegian Sea by Friday, before turning southeast as it tracks across Scandinavia. By Sunday, this low is expected to weaken and dissipate over Finland. Meanwhile, another deep low will approach the Norwegian Sea from the southwest on Sunday.
Between these two low-pressure systems, a ridge of high pressure will shift eastward across the North Sea over the weekend. Due to a dense concentration of isobars, strong winds and higher waves are expected across the region during this period. Specifically, on Sunday evening (see Figure 1), winds over the central part of the North Sea are forecasted to increase to 20-25 knots, with significant wave heights reaching 2-2.5 meters. Further north, conditions will become more unsettled, with winds exceeding 25 knots and waves rising above 2.5 meters. Meanwhile, the southern part of the North Sea will remain calm during this time.
Figure 1: Wind speed and wave heights over the North Sea according to ECMWF weather model on Sunday 15 December at 18UTC.
In conclusion we can indicate that the week begins with pleasant, calm weather, offering favorable and workable conditions. However, this situation is expected to change over the weekend, when strong winds and higher waves over the central and northern parts of the North Sea may hinder operations.