After an unsettled week with several low-pressure areas affecting the North Sea, calmer conditions are set to return for the last week of the year. High pressure will gradually increase its influence across the North Sea in the coming days. Will this trend last until the end of the year, or can we still expect some fireworks?
Currently, low pressure is positioned between Greenland and Iceland, with a trough extending over the North Sea. This trough is expected to move further northeast today as high pressure builds over the Bay of Biscay. Subsequently, the high pressure will shift northeastward, settling over the Alps on Wednesday and remaining more or less stationary through the end of the week. An associated ridge will gradually extend across most of the North Sea this week, forcing low pressure systems to take a more northerly track, directly impacting Greenland and Iceland. Frontal troughs associated with these systems may still pass across the northern North Sea at times.
In general, winds will be moderate to fresh over the southern and central North Sea (10–20 knots), occasionally reaching 20–25 knots just south of Norway and east of Scotland. As high pressure extends over the region, wind speeds will gradually decrease to calm to moderate levels (5–15 knots). Significant wave heights will initially fluctuate between 1 and 2 meters, dropping below 1 meter in many areas from late Wednesday onward (Figure 1). Over the northern North Sea, conditions will be windier, with wind speeds reaching 20–30 knots before decreasing to moderate to fresh levels (15–20 knots) from Thursday onward. Here, significant wave heights will vary between 2 and 4 meters for much of this week.
In conclusion, conditions will be relatively gentle across much of the North Sea this week. However, the northern North Sea will continue to experience slightly unsettled conditions due to periodic frontal troughs. As the year draws to a close, low pressure attempts to reclaim its influence over the region. However, the question remains whether there will be any fireworks or whether it will all fizzle out.