Unlike the calm and stable weather observed over the North Sea last week, we expect less favourable conditions in the coming week, especially as we approach the weekend. The beginning of the week is likely to remain relatively stable, with good conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, as the weekend approaches, conditions are expected to deteriorate, resulting in unworkable conditions in the northern and possibly central North Sea by Saturday and Sunday.
At the moment, the weather is still favorable. A high-pressure system is positioned over Ireland, which will persist over the eastern Atlantic and Ireland at the start of the week. By Thursday, it will shift eastward across the UK and toward mainland Europe by Friday. This synoptic situation will bring relatively calm conditions to the North Sea, with wave heights generally below 2 meters and winds in the 3 to 5 Bft range, making conditions still feasible for most operations.
However, as the week progresses, a deep low-pressure systems is expected to move across the North Atlantic toward the Norwegian and Barents Seas. This introduces considerable uncertainty for the weekend forecast. At the time of writing, it’s clear that conditions will deteriorate later in the week, but the exact extent remains unclear. More optimistic models (ECMWF) predict significant wave heights (Hs) of 2-4 meters in the central North Sea and 4-5 meters in the northern North Sea, accompanied by wind speeds of 5-7 Bft. On the other hand, more pessimistic models (GFS) suggest the possibility of local wind speeds reaching 8 Bft, with wave heights ranging from 3-4 meters in the central North Sea and 5-7, locally even 8 meters, in the northern regions (Figure 1). We strongly recommend consulting the latest weather reports for up-to-date information as conditions continue to evolve.
Looking ahead to next week, the outlook remains uncertain. A number of low-pressure systems are expected to track over the North Sea next week. While it's too early to provide detailed forecasts, this development is likely to bring adverse weather, further impacting workability after the weekend.
North Sea Weather: Deteriorating conditions and uncertainty ahead for the weekend
