Last week, low pressure dominated the weather over the North Sea, with multiple frontal troughs crossing the area. This week’s weather looks completely different, with high pressure extending a ridge over the North Sea. However, on Thursday and Friday low pressure will cross the North Sea, with an increase in winds and waves as a result.
You can find a video briefing at the end of this article
Under the influence of the high-pressure system, winds and waves will generally be low on Tuesday and Wednesday. Over the course of Wednesday, the frontal trough will affect the Northern North Sea. Winds will increase to 30 kts (please see Figure 1) over the northern parts of the North Sea, with significant wave heights increasing to 2.5 – 3.0 meters. In the central parts of the North Sea, winds will remain below 15 kts and waves between 1.0 and 1.5 meters. In the Southern North Sea, waves will not exceed 1.0 meter, with wind speeds below 10 kts. Along the Dutch coastline and in the German Bight, significant waves height values of 0.1 to 0.5 meter are expected (please see Figure 2).
On Thursday, the area with higher wind and waves will propagate more towards the south. Waves will increase to 3.0 meters in Viking and the northern part of Forties. The exact development of the low-pressure area that will develop in the night to Thursday is uncertain. In the GFS scenario, winds will increase to 30 kts in the Central North Sea and waves can grow up to 2.5 – 3.0 meters behind the trough (please see Figure 3 and 4). In the ECMWF scenario, the low will track over the most southern parts of the North Sea and will the pressure in the core will be higher. Therefore, winds and waves will not increase as much as in the GFS scenario. Winds will increase to 20 kts and waves will hardly grow above 1.0 meter.
Since the ECMWF scenario is supported by other models as well, we think this scenario is more likely to occur. But bear in mind that the confidence is rather low, so please take this advice with caution.
On Friday, the low pressure will move away to the southeast while filling. Winds will decrease again and waves will generally not be higher than 1.5 meter. Only in the most northerly part of the North Sea, waves can grow until 2.5 meter. During the weekend, waves will grow even less and will not exceed 1.0 meter in the majority of the North Sea area.
High pressure is located over Scandinavia, with a ridge stretching over the North Sea for the majority of this week. The high pressure influence is alternated with a situation where a frontal trough will spawn a separate low in the night to Thursday. The different weather models show a different track and development of the system.
We follow the ECMWF scenario in which the low-pressure area tracks over the Southern North Sea with a less pronounced wind peak than in the scenario where the low pressure area tracks over the Central North Sea. Bear in mind that the uncertainty is quite high. Please check you daily forecasts as confidence will grows approaching the event
Afterwards, high pressure regains influence over the area and calm conditions occur. Overall, this week is characterized by rather calm and stable weather, with workable conditions.