The North Sea remains under the influence of a large high-pressure system NW of Scotland. This very persistent high has influenced the North Sea already for a few weeks. As a result, winds have been coming from a northerly direction for some time. However, the synoptic situation is finally starting to change.
Video briefing at the end of the article
Synoptic overview
High pressure (1030 hPa) is still lingering NW of Scotland. The high extends a ridge over the North Sea towards the Baltic Sea. Meanwhile, a lee trough is expected to develop along the Norwegian coastline and possibly spawn a separate low-pressure area over the S of Norway. The northerly flow remains present as a result. Even though the wind is coming from the N, relatively warm air is advected. Since the sea water temperatures are still quite low (11-13 degrees) there is a risk of low clouds every now and then as long as the northerly flow persists.However, the situation will finally start to change later during the week. The high near Scotland tracks E over the northern half of the North Sea and enters Scandinavia over the weekend. Meanwhile, a low-pressure area forms near the Azores and fills over the Bay of Biscay on Saturday and Sunday. As a result, the wind will shift from a northerly to a more easterly direction.
Wind and waves
The wind will come from a northerly direction but is not that strong since the pressure gradient is relatively low. Along the UK coast, the wind remains the calmest due to its sheltered location. There is only a few knots of wind expected there. The wind will gradually increase when going further E. The strongest winds (6 Bft) will be along the Norwegian coastline.
Figure 1: Sea level pressure (black lines), wind direction (barbs) and wind speed (colors) on Wednesday 00UTC.
Figure 2: Significant wave height on Wednesday 00UTC.
Both wind and waves gradually decrease as the high over Scotland tracks E over the North Sea towards Scandinavia. The high arrives over Norway and Sweden over the weekend. This means that winds are slowly shifting to the E and SE over a large part of the North Sea. At the same time warm air is advected and both wind and waves will stay calm, as low pressure remains far SW of the UK.
Figure 3: Sea level pressure (black lines), wind direction (barbs) and wind speed (colors) on Sunday 00UTC.
Figure 4: Significant wave height on Sunday 00UTC.
Conclusion
There will be plenty of workable conditions during large parts of the week. Wind and waves will generally remain calm enough to perform most offshore operations. Some patches of low clouds may possibly hinder helicopter flights though. As the high NW of Scotland tracks E later during the week, the conditions remain calm and workable.
Weekly weather briefing
Every week we will post an updated weather briefing on the Infoplaza website and the Infoplaza Marine Weather Operations LinkedIn page. We will also share weather related articles and topics on offshore weather on these pages. We hope all our clients stay safe this week. Please feel free to contact us at any time if you have any questions or remarks.
