After a rather calm week with high pressure generally being predominant over the North Sea, this week’s weather will be more active and variable given the proximity of low pressure over the area. In between the associated frontal troughs, mobile ridges are expected to (shortly) calm things down. You’ll find all the ins and outs in this week’s North Sea briefing.
We start off this week with a diffuse frontal trough lingering over the western North Sea and the parts of the UK on Tuesday. Along its slightly undulating axis an area of low pressure is present over W France, while another wave slowly deepens into a (shallow) low over the N North Sea. Both systems slowly track N and are responsible for a distinct wind and wave peak; most pronounced on the French low. The latter moves N across the western and the North Sea on Wednesday.
In the low’s wake a mobile ridge ensures calmer conditions on Thursday before leaving the North Sea to the NE on Friday. The rate at which this process will take place is still rather uncertain. Some models suggest the ridge remaining present well into the weekend, while others imply a quicker passage with a swift take over by low pressure from Friday, leading to a rather unsettled weekend.
Wind- and wave-wise, the peak associated with the first low on Tuesday is only limited to the northern and northeastern parts of the North Sea, such as Viking and north and south Utsire. Hs peaks at 3-3.5m over there, accompanied by fresh to moderate southeasterlies ahead of the low. Along the Norwegian coast local funneling might shortly enable moderate gales (7 Bft). Elsewhere Hs remains near of (well) below 2m.
The second peak occurs on Wednesday and is mostly for the western and northern parts of the North Sea. Depending on the track and development of the responsible low, the wind field on its eastern and southern flank might regionally reach 7 Bft; coming from directions between southwest and southeast. Associated wave field is expected to build up to 3 to 4m in the course of the day. In worst case - and least likely - scenario waves might reach well over 4m, shortly accompanied by gale force winds (8 Bft). Further south and east conditions remain calmer as the distance to the low increases.
In the wake of Wednesday’s low a ridge of high pressure ensures calmer and overall more workable conditions on Thursday. Depending on how quickly the system leaves the North Sea to the NE, the tranquil conditions will only be short lived as the risk of low pressure taking over increases in its wake during the weekend.
Monitoring of daily weather forecasts is essential, as low-pressure systems may strengthen more than expected, potentially impacting marine conditions. Regularly review your forecast and take necessary safety precautions.
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