We rely on weather forecasts every day, whether for a casual walk or for work that depends heavily on weather conditions. Weather forecasting has become an essential part of our lives. For thousands of years, people have tried to predict the weather using various methods. From the primitive forecasts of ancient times, based on natural signs, to today's advanced predictions powered by artificial intelligence, weather forecasting has come a long way. So, how has this evolution unfolded?
Let's start by defining what a weather forecast is. In modern terms, weather forecasting uses science and various technologies to predict the state of the atmosphere in a specific place at a specific time. But where did it all begin?
The roots of weather forecasting trace back to ancient times. The Babylonians were among the first to predict the weather, relying on cloud shapes and astrology. Over time, books on the subject were written, such as Meteorologica by Aristotle and The Book of Signs by Theophrastus. Even the New Testament makes mention of natural signs that could be used to predict the weather for the day or the next.
Ancient sailors relied on cloud shapes, wind patterns, and wave behavior to predict the weather. The Polynesians developed a sophisticated system using ocean swells, cloud formations, and bird migrations to anticipate incoming weather systems. A well-known saying reflects these early observations: 'Red sky at night, sailor’s delight; red sky in the morning, sailors take warning’.
These early, primitive methods of weather prediction were used until the invention of the electronic telegraph in 1835, which marked the beginning of modern weather forecasting. The telegraph made it possible to transmit atmospheric data over long distances at high speeds, enabling forecasters to predict weather conditions further upwind.
Around this time, a naval officer named Beaufort created the Beaufort wind scale. Additionally, Robert FitzRoy, appointed as head of a new department at the Board of Trade, began collecting and processing meteorological data from ships. FitzRoy developed synoptic charts, which became key tools in making weather predictions. This also led to the birth of the term "weather forecast."
With the advancement of atmospheric physics, weather forecasting also progressed. At the start of the 20th century, Lewis Fry Richardson laid the foundation for the numerical method of weather forecasting with his book Weather Forecasting by Numerical Processes. This method relies on a system of hydromechanics equations (Euler equations) that describe the aero- and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere.
Richardson gathered a large group of people to conduct multiple calculations, which were passed along. However, as the number of calculations grew, it became clear that humans could no longer handle the task without the help of computers. This led to the creation of the first computer-generated weather forecasts, developed by a team of American and Norwegian meteorologists. However, practical use of these computer forecasts didn’t begin until 1955.
During World War II, research and advancements in meteorology accelerated as military operations demanded accurate marine weather forecasts.
As the meteorological network continued to expand and computers became more powerful, increasingly complex calculations became possible. The introduction of radiosonde observations allowed scientists to study the atmosphere not just horizontally, but also vertically. The development of weather satellites and radars enabled the collection of global data, though initially with lower accuracy.
These advancements led to the creation of numerous meteorological models, which have been continuously improved over time.
Nowadays, there are many widely used weather models, such as ECMWF, GFS and ICON. These models are regularly updated and play a key role in forecasting around the world.
Supercomputers process vast amounts of meteorological data to generate highly accurate weather predictions. This data is collected worldwide using advanced technologies, including automated meteorological stations, satellites, mounted waverider buoys and drifting spotter buoys, which continuously monitor temperature, waves, currents, and wind etc.
In recent years, artificial intelligence has become an emerging field in weather forecasting. Unlike traditional methods, AI-based forecasts don’t rely on complex mathematical calculations. Instead, they use information processing techniques and model training based on data from previous years. These technologies improve the accuracy of long-range marine weather predictions.
Currently, artificial intelligence models are not used exclusively for forecasting. Instead, they serve as an additional tool to enhance traditional forecasting methods.
Thus, the weather forecast has come a long way from the simplest methods of using natural signs to the use of artificial intelligence. It is worth noting that in any case, behind every Infoplaza marine weather forecast there is always a meteorologist who, based on his/her experience, makes a decision regarding the weather forecast!
Read more about our Infoplaza Marine Weather team here: Meet the team behind your marine weather forecast.
If you're interested in the future of AI and its impact on weather forecasting for offshore operations, we recommend this webinar on the role of Artificial Intelligence in shaping the future of weather predictions.