The outlook for next week looks unfavourable, with typical autumn weather set to dominate the North Sea. Over the course of the week several low-pressure areas are expected to move across the region. They will result in adverse conditions in large parts of the area, due to strong winds and high waves.
Currently, a low-pressure system has just passed over the southern part of the North Sea in easterly direction, leading to unsettled conditions. Especially in the western and southern part of the North Sea, high northerly wind speeds of at least 6, possibly 7 or even 8 Bft are expected in some areas. This will be accompanied by significant wave heights (Hs) of 4-5 meters and large amounts of precipitation, including the possibility of (wet) snowfall and lightning in some locations. This state is exemplary for what we can expect the coming days, with persisting rough weather throughout the week.
As the week progresses, two other deep low-pressure systems are likely to move across the North Sea. Firstly, a low pressure area in the Norwegian Sea is forecast to move southward into the North Sea late on Wednesday, continuing its path south through the region on Thursday and Friday. This system brings rain and/or wet snow, with the potential for lightning as well. Winds will once again reach 7 to 8 Bft (Figure 1), and waves of up to 6 meters will not be uncommon.
Over the weekend, another low-pressure system will enter the North Sea, this time from the west. As this system is still far ahead, the model discrepancies for this third system are large, leading to considerable uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS model predicts winds up to 10 Bft in the eastern North Sea on Saturday, while the ECMWF model forecasts winds of 7 Bft. In the northern North Sea however, both models locally reach values corresponding to 10 Bft. As a result, high waves are predicted over large parts of the North Sea, with wave heights potentially reaching over 5 meters according to ECMWF, and over 7 meters according to GFS. Due to the model uncertainties, it is too soon to state that these values will be reached eventually, but they do indicate the likelihood of severe weather. Be sure to check the latest weather forecasts to stay informed about current conditions.
Looking further ahead, the outlook for next week remains uncertain. Low-pressure conditions seem to persist till at least Monday. On Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure is expected over the North Sea, providing a brief period of improvement. However, the next series of frontal systems is forecast to arrive from Wednesday onward, bringing further unsettled weather.