Steering low pressure near Iceland slowly moves into the Norwegian Sea this week. Associated troughs affect the North Sea from time to time, alternated by mobile high pressure. The passage of a more active frontal trough on Thursday/Friday results in enhanced uncertainty due to the possible development of a secondary low.
The southern parts of the North Sea will face much calmer weather conditions compared to the northern parts. Moderate to fresh W’ly winds and a significant wave height below 1m are expected most of the time, although Thursday/Friday may see higher values. A thermal low-pressure area over the Benelux, Germany and Denmark may result in the presence of some thunderstorms in the Dutch coastal blocks and over German Bight this Tuesday and Wednesday, before it drifts E away.
According to the American model (GFS), a frontal trough may develop into a secondary low over Ireland or Scotland on Thursday, moving rapidly NE across the East Shetland Basin on Friday. The European models ECMWF and ICON do not, or hardly show this secondary low and let the frontal trough pass without this development. In case this secondary low develops, the S’ly winds ahead as well as the NW’ly winds at the back may increase to near gale force (30-35kts) over the northern parts of the North Sea on Friday. The significant wave height may then increase to 2.5-3m shortly.
Due to the large-scale W’ly flow, relatively cool air is transported into NW Europe, so reduced visibility due to fog isn’t a big issue this week.
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