After a few relatively calm days, unsettled weather is expected to return to the North Sea. A southerly flow over the North Sea is expected to result in waves above 6 meters in the northernmost part.
A ridge of high pressure over the North Sea resulted in quite calm conditions over the past few days, but this high-pressure area is moving away towards Eastern Europe. At the same time, a deep low-pressure area is approaching from the west and is expected to be just west of Ireland by Wednesday.
In between these two systems, a strong SSE flow will set in over the entire North Sea, with the maximum winds expected during the night leading into Thursday. A (strong) SSE gale may blow over Viking, with the strongest winds along the Norwegian coast. Waves will also increase, with a significant wave height of 6 meters expected early on Thursday. The confidence in this forecast is high, as various atmospheric and wave models predict similar values.
What happens afterwards is still uncertain. The previously mentioned low-pressure area west of Ireland is expected to weaken and be replaced by a new deep Atlantic low. Associated troughs are anticipated to affect the North Sea towards the end of the workweek and into the coming weekend.
Figure 1: Severe weather chart of the North Sea for Thursday 17 October.
